May 16, 2014 was a day of celebration. After highly unsuccessful regime of 5 years of UPA-2 government, NDA government came to power as a rescuer in the leadership of Narendra Modi. The government ,which came into power with much vigour and strenuousness, raised some core issues and assured the masses across-the-board to bring fundamental change, is now completing its three years in the office this year.
Three years of timespan is not enough to judge intentions of the government. An analysis,however, can be done which can reflect government's performance in some core areas and issues or at least on the agendas mentioned in its election manifesto.
Economic growth:- This is one of the areas where government has lost particularly.India is one of the fastest growing economies of the world but that growth is not because of government's fiscal policies but because of its self-momentum and spontaneousness.
Manufacturing sector is down, employment generation is all time low, agriculture sector is under crisis, private investment is low but the economy,ironically, is still on a incline. Despite demonetization, India's growth rate stays at 7 per cent.
Now, this is not something surprising. As private investment is down, India's growth is certainly driven by consumption. 7th pay commission,OROP and good monsoon possibly aided consumption to go up. This consumption-led growth ,however, is not going to help in a long run. Experts argue that India is going through the path China already has gone through. This path is going to take the economy nowhere if investment doesn't go up.
Inflation and Fiscal deficit are under control. Foreign reserve is all time high. But this is not the thing government should really take credit of. As said earlier, economy is growing of its own. Having said that, it must be noted that world economy is going through economic slowdown and this has negatively affected India too.
Demonetization :- Demonetization is the most controversial exercise of the Modi government. Controversial because of its implementation faults and tackling with those faults. Despite being controversial it has given BJP political mileage since it was lauded by the masses across-the-board. Implemented with the objective of curbing the menace of black money and counterfeit currency, this exercise was a failure and came out with nothing.
As it was said in Economic Survey 2016-17, demonetization is going to have short term negative but long term positive consequences. It would be better to not comment on long term benefits and wait for the same. As far as short term implications are concerned, inconvenience suffered by the people doesn't need a special mention. Demonetization has badly and mainly affected unorganised sector and farmers. Apart from the inconvenience, the issue of concern remains the changing face and mood of the government. This bold exercise changed into a "digitalization campaign"overnight. Making India cashless economy became the fundamental agenda at the time when we know that we don't have that infrastructure to bring a sudden change in the payment systems. Two fancy schemes were also launched as part of its digitalization campaign. It was,however,a poor attempt towards digitalization. But these schemes justified the ability of NITI Aayog as a policy think-tank.
Political gains:- Political arena is the area where BJP has played one sided game and left its mark on.Winning election after election has proved that BJP knows the art of electioneering. Making government in Manipur and Assam,where there was no trace of BJP, is a significant achievement for the party Recent victory in MCD elections of Delhi has proved that Modi wave has not weakened. Despite the fact that BJP has a history of corruption and inefficiency in Municipal Corporation, this victory clearly indicate that people believe in Modi's vision.
These massive victories somehow restore the faith of people in the government. At least BJP thinks so. However, justifying everything with victories in election is the habit of every political party. This is something the current government must avoid. Countering valid criticism with this strategy is not going to help in any way.
Agriculture:- It is almost clear now that current government doesn't really care about agriculture. Since contribution of agriculture in GDP is significantly low and more than required people are involved in agriculture, the only way government finds to get rid of this disguised unemployment is to force farmers callously to quit agriculture, migrate and become labourers in the urban clusters.
Promises of doubling their incomes have been made but the kind of practices to achieve the same are not yet on the ground. There is no discussion about rising input cost. If government is so pro-farmer, as it claims to be one, why can't it cap sky-touching prices of fertilizers? Why there is no discussion about National Agriculture Policy?
Internal insurgencies:-
Promises of doubling their incomes have been made but the kind of practices to achieve the same are not yet on the ground. There is no discussion about rising input cost. If government is so pro-farmer, as it claims to be one, why can't it cap sky-touching prices of fertilizers? Why there is no discussion about National Agriculture Policy?
Internal insurgencies:-
- Jammu and Kashmir:- The government which unofficially follows Doval's doctrine in Kashmir has mishandled the situation in Kashmir. The doctrine which says - "Do not overreact,it will pass of as they can't sustain beyond a point". Government has sternly adopted hardline strategy as suggested by the doctrine and quit policy of appeasement but the situation worsened. 2017 by-election had observed lowest turnout till date. It seems that the doctrine being followed by the government is not working. But there is a reason behind that. Doval told to disaggregate the problem which the government didn't do. Different people take to the streets for different reason. BJP-PDP coalition government has not addressed the issue of unemployment, lack of development, poverty etc.Government,on the other hand, saw this as a single political problem.
- Dealing with Naxalites:- Policy of government in dealing with naxalites and maoists remains more or less same. In a TV debate BJP spokesperson said that "those who are indulged in violence will be crushed and the rest tribal civilian population will be assimilated in mainstream". Security forces are there ready to crush the violence but no significant step has been taken to make sure the assimilation of tribals in the mainstream. As far as deployment of security forces is concerned, there is no coordination between center and state .Sukma attack is example in front of us. Lack of coordination and local support and intelligence resulted into deaths of CRFP personnels.
Foreign Policy:- On a foreign policy front, government has certainly delivered goods. Foreign relations under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is rising like never before.
If we talk about Neighbourhood First Policy, India's relations with Bangladesh are better today than any time in the past. Relations with Bhutan and Sri Lanka has also improved. Temporary volatility between India-Nepal relations was seen but that was largely because of Nepal's internal political disturbance. India has established strategic relations with Afghanistan. India,Iran and Afghanistan signed a tripartite agreement to turn the Iranian port of Chabahar into a transit hub bypassing Pakistan.
Second pillar of Modi's strategic geoeconomic vision is Act East Policy.India has strengthened strategic partnerships with Vietnam,Malaysia,Japan, South Korea,Singapore and many more. Civil nuclear deal between New India and Japan is historic.
Relations with USA has also strengthened.USA has formally recognized India as a major defence partner and multiple agreements have been signed for the same. Closeness between two nations,however, bothers Russia.India really needs to take care about that. India can't afford to let Russia move towards China that too at the time when foreign policy of USA ,if there is one, is unpredictable.
A weak point in India's foreign policy has been its lacking geopolitical vision. When we have malevolent neighbours like Pakistan and China, we can't rely only on a geoeconomic strategy. This is where government really needs to puzzle over. Indian Ocean Rim Association as a group can serve India's strategic purpose and counter China's increasing sphere of influence in the region but India,because of that lacking geopolitical vision, hasn't taken any big step. India had launched Project Mausam but what exactly is in the project remains a question till date.
Reforms and ,initiatives :- First half of three year duration was a period of initiatives and major schemes. Digital India, Make in India, Skill India, Awas Yojana, Jan dhan Yojana, Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana,Gold monetization scheme, Kaushal Vikas Yojana and many more other schemes were launched. It is too early to decide the success or failure of the schemes but government has certainly performed better on this parameter. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is laudable. Though there is lot more to be done on ground level but this mission has undoubtedly charged the people with positivity.
Niti Aayog remains the biggest failed experiment of government.Despite the fact that member are expert and specialist in their field, the commission has not done anything worth praising, It is rhetoric driven body which has no idea about the ground reality.
Technological advancement has increased in the various sectors but core issue have not been solved yet.Ill designed policies and their weak structure and framework is the result of not including all the stakeholders during the policy formulation. When the education policy was being designed, directors and controllers of educational institutes were not even invited. Farmer leaders are not consulted while making policies pertaining to agriculture. This remains a major problem.
When it comes to curbing corruption, government's stance is not clear. It constituted SIT after assuming charge in office. Lokpal act,on the other hand, is still in pending status. The reason is that this idea does not belong to BJP. Had it been BJP's idea, the party would have found loopholes to get done the same just like it cleared Aadhar Bill by putting it on the table as Money Bill.
The government,undoubtedly, is doing good and putting all its efforts assiduously. But it needs to check time to time whether it is going in the right direction. Schemes and plans are made by every government. Need of the hour is to check its implementation where the actual problem lies.
If we talk about Neighbourhood First Policy, India's relations with Bangladesh are better today than any time in the past. Relations with Bhutan and Sri Lanka has also improved. Temporary volatility between India-Nepal relations was seen but that was largely because of Nepal's internal political disturbance. India has established strategic relations with Afghanistan. India,Iran and Afghanistan signed a tripartite agreement to turn the Iranian port of Chabahar into a transit hub bypassing Pakistan.
Second pillar of Modi's strategic geoeconomic vision is Act East Policy.India has strengthened strategic partnerships with Vietnam,Malaysia,Japan, South Korea,Singapore and many more. Civil nuclear deal between New India and Japan is historic.
Relations with USA has also strengthened.USA has formally recognized India as a major defence partner and multiple agreements have been signed for the same. Closeness between two nations,however, bothers Russia.India really needs to take care about that. India can't afford to let Russia move towards China that too at the time when foreign policy of USA ,if there is one, is unpredictable.
A weak point in India's foreign policy has been its lacking geopolitical vision. When we have malevolent neighbours like Pakistan and China, we can't rely only on a geoeconomic strategy. This is where government really needs to puzzle over. Indian Ocean Rim Association as a group can serve India's strategic purpose and counter China's increasing sphere of influence in the region but India,because of that lacking geopolitical vision, hasn't taken any big step. India had launched Project Mausam but what exactly is in the project remains a question till date.
Reforms and ,initiatives :- First half of three year duration was a period of initiatives and major schemes. Digital India, Make in India, Skill India, Awas Yojana, Jan dhan Yojana, Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana,Gold monetization scheme, Kaushal Vikas Yojana and many more other schemes were launched. It is too early to decide the success or failure of the schemes but government has certainly performed better on this parameter. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is laudable. Though there is lot more to be done on ground level but this mission has undoubtedly charged the people with positivity.
Niti Aayog remains the biggest failed experiment of government.Despite the fact that member are expert and specialist in their field, the commission has not done anything worth praising, It is rhetoric driven body which has no idea about the ground reality.
Technological advancement has increased in the various sectors but core issue have not been solved yet.Ill designed policies and their weak structure and framework is the result of not including all the stakeholders during the policy formulation. When the education policy was being designed, directors and controllers of educational institutes were not even invited. Farmer leaders are not consulted while making policies pertaining to agriculture. This remains a major problem.
When it comes to curbing corruption, government's stance is not clear. It constituted SIT after assuming charge in office. Lokpal act,on the other hand, is still in pending status. The reason is that this idea does not belong to BJP. Had it been BJP's idea, the party would have found loopholes to get done the same just like it cleared Aadhar Bill by putting it on the table as Money Bill.
The government,undoubtedly, is doing good and putting all its efforts assiduously. But it needs to check time to time whether it is going in the right direction. Schemes and plans are made by every government. Need of the hour is to check its implementation where the actual problem lies.
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